EQUINOMETRICS.COM
Thoughts on Horse Racing from an Economist/Horseplayer/Fan

Marshall Gramm    marshall@equinometrics.com
EQUINOMETRICS.COM

Night Racing at Churchill

A success? All the pundits say so. How about the bettors? Both nights drew big crowds but handle didn't dramatically increase.


Coach Billy G.

Stay up late Friday night and you can catch the racing debut of Coach Billy G. The 3yo colt by Storm Cat out of Grade I winner A.P. Adventure runs in the night cap at Churchill Downs going six furlongs (brisnet.com pps). Coach Billy G. is named after Billy Gillespie, a hero to most us of Aggies (I'm a '00 Ph.D.) and a goat to Kentucky Wildcats. It was his love of horse racing that in part lured him from College Station to Lexington in 2007. That was 2 years and 27 losses ago. If he had stayed at A&M they would've erected statues in his honor. Now he is unemployed.

Coach Bill G. (the colt) is breed and owned by an Aggie (Mr. Don Adam). I suspect that Kentuckians wouldn't even name a mule after Coach Gillespie.   

 

Menifeecent

When (if ever) will Truxton Stables have a winner? Truxton runner Menifeecent is 2/1 morning line favorite in the first at Churchill Downs. Keep your fingers crossed.

Here is the record to date

Giacomo profile

Turxton Stables' Aunt Dot Dot is in foal to Giacomo and is due March 21st. Here is a profile of Giacomo from Bloodhorse.com. Sounds like breeding to Giacomo might negate ADD's nasty disposition.

Yeats win 4th Gold Cup

Belmont Stakes


The cold superfecta -

First         9 Miner's Escape

Second   7 Mine That Bird

Third        4 Summer Bird

Fourth      8 Flying Private

Sign me up


from drf.com
Dish Network plans to launch a subscription satellite service allowing customers to view the simulcast feeds from parimutuel tracks on up to 80 channels beginning in September, according to a release from the satellite-television company and the race-broadcasting companies HorseRacing TV and Racetrack Television Network. The service will cost $49.99 a month and consist of the raw simulcast feeds from Thoroughbred, Quarter Horse, harness, and greyhound tracks.

Brilliant. No more TVG talking heads.  Hopefully I'll be able to get Churchill Downs in HD.

RIP Broad Brush

Broad Brush is one of the last threads in the almost extinct Domino sire line. It'll be up to his son Include to carry the mantle for one of the great old American lines. As a runner Broad Brush was 14 of 27 lifetime and earned $2.6 million. He was leading sire in '94 when his son Concern won the BC Classic.

Here is Broad Brush winning the 1987 Big Cap

Memphis #18


from the Bloodhorse

Top 20 Markets for the Preakness (Race Portion):

1) Baltimore               25.1/51
2) Louisville               21.3/38
3) Ft. Myers                17.3/32
4) West Palm Beach   14.8/27
5) Columbus               13.3/26
6) Buffalo                   13.0/25
7) Dayton                    11.7/24
8) Providence             11.5/27
T9) Tampa                  11.2/23
T9) Orlando                11.2/22
11) Albuquerque         10.9/24
12) Richmond             10.8/21
13) Pittsburgh             10.7/20
T14) Indianapolis       10.5/22
T14) Hartford             10.5/21
16) Nashville              10.4/20
17) Knoxville             10.0/18
18) Memphis              9.6/18
T19) Cincinnati          9.3/17
T19) Greenville          9.3/17

Time to bring back Montgomery Park.

Preakness Day


$1 Pick 4 -  3As and a C or 2As and 2Bs
$2 Pick 4 -  3As and a B
$3 Pick 4 -  4As

I think Rachel Alexandra is the most likely winner and offers value if she gets up to 2/1. If Papa Clem is at 10/1 or better then he is also worth a look.

Update: Scratches cut my Pick 4 play from $372 to $176. I looked to beat ml 3/5 favorite Affirmatif in the Woodlawn but the only two legit contenders scratched. I bet a $20 exacta box on Friesan Fire, Papa Clem, and Rachel Alexandra ($120). I'll make more Preakness bets close to race time.

1:31 - I bet $20 WP on Everday Heroes and put in $6 exactas 2/1,3,6 and 1,3,6/2 and $2 exactas 2/5,9 and 5,9/2. An $84 play on a race I had planned to just watch.

3:45 - I'm alive in the Pick 4, but so is the rest of the world. The win in the eighth by Everyday Heroes returned $521 so I'm ahead on the day so far. Still enough races to give it all back and then some.

4:01 - $10 exacta box 4,7, $1 trifecta 4,7/All/4,7, $1 Double 2,6,11/5,7,13. $47 total.

4:13 - Out of respect for Steve Crist I'll take my A horses and put them in exactas with his As for $2 each. 4,7/8,10,12 and 8,10,12/4,7 for $24.

4:17 - Another favorite wins. I'm alive $2 to Rachel Alexandra, Friesan Fire, and Papa Clem. Hopefully I'll break even on the Pick 4 if the filly wins (though I doubt it).

4:23 - $2 Pick 4 will pays - $130 to Rachel Alexandra, $356 to Friesan Fire, $530 to Papa Clem.

4:30 - Value on Rachel Alexandra in the place and show pools (prime Dr. Z bets). 25.5% of the win pool is on her but only 16.1% of the place pool and 13.9% of the show pool. There is more money in the place and show pool on Pioneerof the Nile than the filly.

4:36 - 36 minutes to post and more money has been bet in the Win/Place/Show pool on the Preakness than last year ($15.6 mill vs $14.3 mill).

4:43 - $200 across the board on Rachel Alexandra.

9:55 - Great race. Everything I could hope for (though Friesan Fire or Papa Clem sticking around for the exacta would've been nice). Fantastic performance by the Rachel Alexandra, but I was even more impressed (perhaps surprised would be a better word) by Mine That Bird. He is no one hit wonder. Both are probable for the Belmont. Three weeks can't come soon enough.

Last Five Books Read

Flying Finish by Dick Francis (1966), American Lion: Andrew Jackson in the White House by Jon Meacham (2008), The Hard Knocker’s Luck by William Murray (1985), Merryland: Two Years in the Life of a Racing Stable by Josh Pons (2007), Diary of a Dream: My Journey in Thoroughbred Racing by George Rowand (2005)
 my horse-racing shelf

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