EQUINOMETRICS.COM
Thoughts on Horse Racing from an Economist/Horseplayer/Fan

Marshall Gramm    marshall@equinometrics.com
EQUINOMETRICS.COM

Aunt Dot Dot is a mommy!

A big baby colt by Giacomo born in the last hour. Names?

R.I.P. Dick Francis


A sad day. Dick Francis wrote 42 horse racing related mysteries and was a champion jump jockey. I've read over half his books and always read one when I'm on the road. My favorites - For Kicks (1965), Bonecrack (1971), Straight (1989), and To the Hilt (1996).

Pregnant Dot Dot

Aunt Dot Dot at Timber Ridge Farm. She is in foal to Giacomo and due in late March.

WOW!

HOT SPRINGS, Ark. (AP)—Oaklawn Park is throwing $5 million at star females Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta to meet for the first time at the Apple Blossom in April.

The racetrack in Hot Springs announced Thursday that the owners of both champion horses are receptive to the idea. No firm commitments have been made.

“This is an event of a lifetime,” said Pat Pope, Oaklawn’s racing secretary. “We’re going to do everything to bring them to the state of Arkansas.”

Rachel Alexandra won 2009 Horse of the Year honors over Zenyatta. The 4-year-old Rachel and 6-year-old Zenyatta have never met on the track to settle who is the best.

Oaklawn said the $5 million purse will be offered only if both horses enter. If not, the purse will revert to $500,000 as initially planned.

No matter who is in the field, the Apple Blossom distance has been increased from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles.

Rachel Alexandra is training at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans. Her first race this year is undetermined. She went 8-0 last year, including the Preakness and two other wins against male horses.

Zenyatta had been off to retirement after capping a 14-0 career with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. But now she’s back for another year and might run in the Santa Margarita Handicap at Santa Anita on March 13.

Zenyatta, who won the 2008 Apple Blossom, is owned by Jerry and Ann Moss, and trained by John Shirreffs. Rachel, who won twice at Oaklawn last year, is owned by Jess Jackson and Harold McCormick and trained by the nation’s top trainer Steve Asmussen.

“My family and I would love to see her run at Oaklawn Park. If she is in top form and it fits in our schedule, we will be there,” Jackson said. “As you have heard me say many times before, a number of factors must be considered when deciding where to race a horse—the number one factor being the condition of the horse. Rachel will tell us when she is ready to start her 2010 campaign and we humans must agree she is in top form.”

Rachel Alexandra - Horse of the Year

The voters got it right
Rachel Alexandra 130 to Zenyatta 99

The best news of the new year, of course, is that Zenyatta is running in '10. So the two great race mares will probably face off on a conventional dirt surface (should they remain sound). Wherever they run I will be there. It just might be the most anticipated race in the history of the sport in America.

Truxton a maiden no more


As the field turns for home it is In the Woods. In the Woods comes off the turn and gets command. Down to the last furlong with In the Woods now striding clear to a 2 1/2 length lead. The Big Story has moved to second, trying to sustain that run. Deliver Results and Delivery Man are both down inside. They're in deep stretch and it is In the Woods. In the Woods clear by 2 1/2 with The Big Story second best. It will be In the Woods. In the Woods will be first under the wire.

Truxton Stables' In the Woods was best in a field of $7500N2L claimers to pick up $12,000 for the effort. Most importantly, after 16 months and 30 consecutive losing starts, a Truxton Stables' runner has found its way to the winner's circle.

Happy New Year! May this be the start of an excellent '10 and a decade of success.

Breaking Even

A decade worth of betting

Online vintage DRFs

Great project.

Truxton Stables '09

Ugly.

$1,886 per start

Expected Wins: 3.78
Actual Wins: 0

Probability of losing all 24 starts: 1.27% 




I agree


My two favorite writers on Horse of the Year -

Andrew Beyer

Steven Crist

Last Five Books Read

Super Freakonomics: Global Cooling, Patriotic Prostitutes, and Why Suicide Bombers Should Buy Life Insurance by Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner (2009), The Shackled Continent: Africa’s Past, Present and Future by Robert Guest (2005), The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World by Niall Ferguson (2008), A History of the American People by Paul Johnson (1998), The Edge by Dick Francis (1988)
 my horse-racing shelf

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