The big day is finally here! Racing commences at Santa Anita in the morning on the west coast to accommodate a 12-5pm central NBC broadcast. The Pick Six is the final six (of eight) Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championship races.

The times (all in central)

BC Mile 1:35

BC Sprint 2:10

BC F&M Turf 2:45

BC Juvenile 3:20

BC Turf 3:55

BC Classic 4:35

so grab a beer and spend the afternoon on the couch cheering our horses home.

Once again I want to thank you for your participation in this year's syndicate. It has been a challenge analyzing horse from across the world and determining whether they will bring their A game to a smoggy, hot (100+ degree weather -- gone be tough for those Euros), and speed biased (best to be out front and on the rail) socal track. However, unlike last year there are a some standouts on the card and I feel confident that if we get a few breaks we could have an exciting afternoon.

Once again I've attached an excel spreadsheet detailing our bet. On the first worksheet I grade the 70 entrants in the six races giving this year 5 As, 20 Bs, 41 Cs, and 4 Ds. Included are the morning lines of the horses -- notice that some of the C horses are ml favorites. The next worksheet, comprised of numbers, is our ticket -- it is actually 32 tickets. Not only was it a mental challenge to decide which horses to bet on but it was perhaps more difficult to figure out the most efficient way to place this wager. The third worksheet is all 250 combinations of horses that comprise our tickets. I've sorted them inversely by projected payoff -- obviously we want the $1 mill in the first row but we'll settle for the $10k at the bottom. The last worksheet has our distribution of combinations by race. Our bet once again hinges on a few "key" horses.

Who to root for and against?

Mile

9 Touch of the Blues (34% of all combinations) has 20-1 morning line and should come flying at the end. If he can't get it done we need 6 Special Ring or 3 Designed for Luck. While we have every horse in the race on at least one ticket we don't want Euros 10 Oasis Dream and 13 Six Perfections. Hopefully they've been growing their winter coat and will melt in the socal heat.

Sprint

2 Shake You Down (78%) looks solid as the second betting choice. He should clear the field and hopefully have enough left to hold of favorite 6 Aldebaran who comes from the clouds. I'm always inclined to bet against a stretch running sprinter shortening in distance in a big field -- lots of traffic to avoid and a very short race to make up ground. This is a big stand early.

F&M Turf

A wide open race where we hope that 4 Islington (54%) will out class the field based on her strong Euro performances against the boys. Unfortunately we keyed Islington last year only to have that idiot Kieron Fallon run her into trouble all over the course. That bastard rides her again. Hopefully these Euro jocks learn from their embarrassing performance last year (see last year's summary email). We cover 11 of 12 horses in the field and it wouldn't be too bad if 1 Tates Creek (14%) won. If we are still alive cheer against 6 Musical Chimes -- a Euro who should be second favorite.

Juvenile

A bad field. All the good ones are superstitious and believe that if they win the Juvey they won't win the Derby (the winner has been cursed for the first 19 years of the BC). 12 Cuvee (74%) is head and shoulders the best horse but he is a young'un who might not like the added distance and does draw the far outside post. nervous about this one.

Turf

should be a great race. four of the best of the world -- 3 High Chaparral who won last year's BC Turf plus the English and Irish Derbies, 4 Sulamani, winner of the Dubai Sheema Classic, 5 Storming Home, dominant winner of four straight in the US , and 8 Falbrav, winner of the QEII and Eclipse Stakes in England. We give the nod to Storming Home (63%) with some action on Falbrav (22%).

Classic

if we get to the Classic alive than cheer like you never have before for 9 Congaree. The Bob Baffert horse has had his ups and downs but looks to ride the speed bias home after he puts away Medaglia d'Oro (last year's key horse for us -- we've given up on this choker who is likely to be favorite). We have 94% of our combinations with Congaree. If he can work to the lead or stay just off the pace with a opening quater of :23 and half of :47 than we can start counting our money. This is our big stand. Congaree is likely to go off as the fourth choice but he has home field advantage, tactical speed, and a solid foundation. We have zero combinations on Derby/Preakness hero (and former syndicate cash cow) Funny Cide. It would be poetic justice if he comes back to bite us in the ass after we abandon him but it ain't goin' to happen.

The Breeders' Cup was an exciting day of racing with a number of upsets that created a huge payoff of $2,687,612 to the one winner who had 6 of 6 correct and $18,664 to anyone with 5 of 6. Our best tickets? 2 of 6. ugggh. nothing like being wrong all day long. gotta hand it to the Euros. They came up big in the BC yesterday despite the fast American turf, smog, and heat. A number of california horses came up big with most of them being in trainer Richard Mandella's barn as he saddled four winners and a runner up. In fact Mandella closed out the day with the final three legs of the Pick Six -- all big prices. Trainer Bobby Frankel, the tops in the game, pushed his career BC record to a pathetic 2 for 56 and three of his horses ran out of the money despite being favorites.

As for the Pick 6

Six Perfections $12.60

Cajun Beat $47.60

Islington $7.80

Action This Day $55.60

High Chaparral $6.40 or Johar $13.60

Pleasantly Perfect $30.40

of those seven i liked Islington and she was the favorite.

i've once again attached the excel spreadsheet with our bet as well as the post time odds and number of winners on each ticket. not good. let's go back to where it all started going wrong.

Mile

winner Six Perfections

favorite Peace Rules (last)

This race was wide open and we spread pretty deep hoping that Touch of the Blues would come flying late to win at a big price. i took a stand against the Euros here leaving ourselves with very few combinations with Six Perfections and Oasis Dreams. If Touch of the Blues couldn't get it done for us, i had a number of tickets with Californians Special Ring and Designed for Luck as well as Triple Crown vet Peace Rules and deep closer Perfect Soul. The pace was wicked and Peace Rules was fried up front fading to last.  Designed for Luck and Special Ring both ran off the pace but had nothing left for the stretch. As they turned for home on the corner of my tv I could see Touch of the Blues come wide and start a forceful rally only to have Six Perfections just on his inside get a better jump and out run him to the wire. Missed by three quarters of a length. Our other horses finished 7th, 8th, 9th, and 13th. This was the beginning of a big day for the Euros and a long day for us. We were barely alive with nothing but chalk on in and what makes it worse was being beaten by a short priced horse.

Sprint

winner Cajun Beat

favorite Aldebaran (6th)

fourth BC race, third Frankel favorite. I didn't like Aldebaran's chances because he's a run from the clouds type who was shortening up from 7 furlongs and likely would not have enough ground to get the job done. I loved easterner Shake You Down. He was second choice and looked like he would outbreak the field and coast in. He was on 78% of our tickets and all five the were still alive. I also liked 3yos Valid Video and Midas Eyes (Frankel's other horse) but unfortunately it was another 3yo that took home the prize. Shake You Down broke a step slow but came rushing toward the front with a pack of horses. They ran the opening quarter in a blistering :21 flat and the half in :43 1/5. The pace was murderous but speed looked like it was holding at SA (Adoration wired the field to pay $83.40 in the opener). Shake You Down dug in at the top of the stretch but was passed by stalker Cajun Beat and then late by the deep closing Bluesthestandard. 22-1 over 13-1. Aldebaran came running late but finished five lengths back in sixth. Midas Eyes was eighth and Valid Video was last. No winners but two last place horses through two races. we were out of the pick six even faster than last year.

F&M Turf

winner & favorite Islington

by now i had dropped off the Frankel train and was hoping to make a score on my own against him. i was down on the day but had cashed an exacta in the Juvenile Fillies and the Mile. Islington looked like a solid play here. she was in a majority of our now defunct pick six tickets and i was hoping to nail a Pick 3 by singling her, bringing in a longshot in Juvenile and taking the top three contenders in the Turf. Islington should've won last year but she had a horrible ride by Kieron Fallon who was back this year to screw things up. Longshots Bien Nicole and L'Ancresse ran in front while all sorts of jostling went on behind them  (Musical Chimes, one of the favorites was rank and all over the place). Bien Nicole cleared the field by ten lengths but she was sure to get reeled in. I wasn't afraid of L'Ancresse because the word was that she was only entered to be a rabbit for stablemate Yesterday. Everyone passed Bien Nicole at the top of the stretch lead by L'Ancresse who got the jump and moved to a couple length lead before being collared by Islington. It was a nip and tuck battle between the two with Islington by a nose at the wire. That rabbit was 46-1 and would certainly have ended everyone's pick six dreams. At least we had got something right with Islington. Oh by the way Euros ran 1-2-3.

Juvenile

winner Action This Day

favorite Cuvee (last)

horrible field. all the good ones were avoiding the BC perhaps worried about the so called Juv jinx. No BC Juvenile winner has ever won the Kentucky Derby. Cuvee was the only star showing up and despite the fact that he looked like he'd struggle over the two turn mile and a sixteenth distance i figured he'd win on class alone. I somewhat liked Chapel Royal and Tiger Hunt. What worried me about Cuvee was that he drew wide but that had not bothered Halfbridled in the Juvenille Fillies. There was a furious rush for the lead into the first turn and Cuvee went six or seven wide. He moved up toward the lead down the backstretch but the fractions were fast and he faded at the top of the stretch finishing fifty lengths off the winner after being eased. Chapel Royal inherited the lead but was tired and wobbly and the closers came flying with bomb Action This Day paying a $55.60. Hitting the all button on the Pick 3 was wise here. as for the pick six, we were now officially dead -- no consolation payout for us.

Turf

winners Johar and High Chaparral

favorite Storming Home (7th)

time just to sit back, relax and watch a great race. four of the top horses in the world were assembled with Storming Home, Sulamani, Falbrav, and High Chaparral. i believed that HC was over the top so i tossed him from my pick six and if any of the others were to come in, i'd be even for the day (not including my stake in the pick six). Once the front runners Balto Star, Toccet, and The Tin Man had packed it in, the race between our champions was on. Unfortunately neither Sulamani nor Storming Home ran their races and both finished out of the money. so much for the two domestic horses. However Falbrav kicked clear by a few lengths but then his stride started shortening and first HC and then longshot Californian Johar (who had previously been soundly beaten by Storming Home) came running. three noses came across the wire with the latter two being slightly ahead of Falbrav. damn. so much for breaking even. There was fifteen minute wait for a winner and in the end it was declared a dead heat between Johar and HC. Hats off to HC who won his second BC Turf in a row and to Dick Mandella who had his third winner on the day. better add Pleasantly Perfect to some of my tickets in the Classic with Mandella so hot. naw, he don't got a prayer.

Classic

winner Pleasantly Perfect

favorite Medaglia d'Oro (2nd)

I loved Californian Congaree here and nothing had dissuaded me from this. I thought Medaglia d'Oro was a big race choker and his trainer Frankel had been one thus far. I tossed Medaglia and hoped to hit a big tri to salvage the day with Congaree or triple crown survivor Ten Most Wanted on top with clunkers Evening Attire and Volponi on the bottom. I also played the Congaree/Ten Most Wanted exacta. Funny Cide, our derby hero, was a fraud in this race. coming off a long layoff he did not have the foundation to get 10 furlongs. putting julie krone (who i dislike) of his back made things worse. Congaree and Medaglia d'Oro battled up front early with FC blowing the first turn and pushing a number of horses wide including Perfect Drift and Ten Most Wanted. In essence he knocked Ten Most Wanted out of the race so much for the exacta. Congaree looked all through the back stretch like he was going to rocket by Medaglia d'Oro but never did and at the top of the stretch Medaglia came back and moved a half a length in front of him .The relatively fast pace had taken its toll and longshots Pleasantly Perfect and Dynever were running late. PP surging by the front runners for a length win and capping of the greatest single day by any trainer for Richard Mandella. Medaglia hung on for second over Dynever. At least Frankel got one of his four favorites to run in the money. Congaree faded to fourth. Another of my A horses out of the money. my Ds had done as well as my A group. ugggh.

even with losing it was still an enjoyable day of horse racing as any day of racing is. If you have not been out to your local track I encourage you to do so. I would also recommend reading Laura Hildebrand's Seabiscuit -- its better than the movie.

if you've gotten to this point in the email it must be a slow day at work or home

thanks once again for participating. one bad year won't chase me away. i'll be back in '04 ready to take another plunge and i hope you will join me. it is a great honor you have bestowed upon me to trust me with investing your hard earned cash and i feel with certainty that we will beat this thing in the future.