2006 Breeders' Cup
Breeders' Cup Day is soon upon us and I have finished all of our handicapping early this year. In a few hours I am headed up I-40 to I-65 - from the bank of the
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1 |
Juvenile Fillies |
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2 |
Juvenile |
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3 |
F&M Turf |
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4 |
Sprint |
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5 |
Mile |
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6 |
Distaff |
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7 |
Turf |
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8 |
Classic |
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We will once again take a diversified approach, using approximately 60% of our bankroll on the Pick Six (race 3-8), and 20% each on the early Pick 4 (races 1-4) and the late Pick 4 (races 5-8).
This year (our fifth anniversary), we have 42 team members and a bankroll of $2001. Each $20 share is worth almost 1%. It is our biggest attack to date.
This year we have a distinct strategies for the Pick 4s - to eliminate to eliminate chalky, favorite laden tickets. Our Pick Six is a little heavy on the chalk but favorites will do well this year (mark my words). I have attached an excel spreadsheet that has our exact wagers listed with a full breakdown.
The Pick Six
F&M Turf
2 Ouija Board will be the betting favorite and the most likely winner of this race. She won this race in '04 and was second in '05. This year she has run only against the top horses in
Sprint
4 Henny Hughes was runner up in last year's Juvenile and has returned this year as the nation's top sprinter. He should be able to stalk the hot pace and push to the lead at the top of the stretch. 6 Bordonaro, the top sprinter in the West, the talented but inconsistent 8 Pomeroy and wild front runner 13 Attila's Storm also figure to be prominent and are represented in our play.
Mile
We spread to four top horses here. 3 Araafa is one of the top milers in
Distaff
Choas. We take two approaches. In the Pick Six we rely heavily on 7 Fleet Indian, winner of eight straight including twice at 10 furlongs (an eighth of a mile longer than today's race). She also overcame a poor start to win last out despite being hooked late by a fast closing 14 Balleto. I do have an uncomfortable feeling that she may be over the top for this race so we also have tickets with all other major competitors. In our late Pick Four we will make a stand against Fleet Indian.
Turf
6 Cacique has the best closing kick though whether he can get the distance is question mark. He should benefit from what will be soft pace. 7 Hurricane Run is one of
Classic
3 Bernardini is head and shoulders better than this stellar field with 11 Invasor being the only threat. Bernardini's wins in the Preakness, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup have almost been walkovers. He is bred to run all day and make the lead or come charging from far off the pace. 8 Lava Man has put up an amazing record (7 for 7 with 4 Grade 1s) against suspect competition. He also is a confirmed front runner with distance limitations. We have nothing on him.
The Early Pick Four
In the sequence we focused on two key horses each of whom should be a price. In the F&M Turf we key 4 Film Maker who was discussed above. In the Juvenile our key horse is 5 C P West. C P West is lightly raced, has a pedigree indicating that he should excel around two turns, and will be between 12-1 and 15-1. Should one of these horses win we will have a payday (barring a completely unforeseen event in another race in the sequence).
The Late Pick Four
Our main strategy was to try to beat heavy favorite 7 Fleet Indian in the Distaff with horses who figure to be 10-1 or higher. Our key horses are 1 Round Pound, 3 Healthy Addiction, 6 Spun Sugar, and 9 Pool Land.
Saturday should be an exciting day.
Pick Six ($2 Wager)
2,4/4/3,6,7,12/1,2,3,6,7,9,14/6,7,10/3
2,4/4/3,6,7,12/7/2,4,8,9/3
2,4/1,2,6,7,8,9,10,11,13/3,6,7,12/7/6/3
2,4/4/1,2,4,9,10,13,14/7/6/3
3,5,6,7,9,10/4/3,6,7,12/7/6/3
2,4/4/3,6,7,12/7/6,7,10/11
2,4/4/3,6,7,12/13/6/3
2/6,8,13/3,6,7,12/1,2,6,7,9,14/7,10/3
2/6,8,13/3,6,7,12/1,2,6,9,14/6/3
7,9/6,8,13/3,6,7,12/7/6/3
2,4/6,8,13/4/7/6/3
7,9/6,8,13/3,7/7/7,10/3
Early Pick Four ($1 Wager)
3,4,5,7,10,11,12/2,3,5,6,7,9,10/4/4
3/2,3,5,6,7,9,10/4/4,6,8,13
3/3,7,9/4/1,2,4,6,7,8,9,10,11,13
3,4,5,7,10,11,12/3,7,9/4/4,6,8,13
3,4,5,7,10,11,12/5/2,4,7,9/4
3/5/2,4,7,9/4,6,8,13
3/5/2,3,4,5,6,7,9,10/4
3/5/2,4/1,2,4,6,7,8,9,10,11,13
3,4,5,7,10,11,12/5/2/4,6,8,13
Late Pick Four ($1 Wager)
3,6,7,12/1,3,6,9,11,13/4,6,7,9,10/3
1,2,3,4,6,7,9,10,12,13,14/1,3,6,9/6,7,10/3
3,6,7,12/1,3,6,9/2/3
3,6,7,12/1,3,6,9/6/3,11
3,7/1,2,6,9,14/2/3
3/1,2,6,7,9,14/2,4,6,7,9,10/3,11
3/2,7,14/2,4,6,7,9,10/3
3/7/2,4,6,7,9,10/3
3/1,2,6,7,9,14/6,7,10/3
3/7/6,7,10/3,11
1,9,13/1,2,6,7,9,14/6,7,10/3
1,9,13/2,7,14/2,4,9/3
1 Juvenile Fillies
2 Juvenile
Fin
Odds
EP4
EP4
Fin
Odds
EP4
EP4
3
Cash Included
5
2.7
129
44.3%
5
C P West
6
10.2
111
38.1%
4
Octave
2
5.5
27
9.3%
9
Circular Quay
2
3.0
49
16.8%
5
She's Included
6
47.9
27
9.3%
7
Great Hunter
7
7.0
49
16.8%
7
Cotton Blossom
3
18.8
27
9.3%
3
Scat Daddy
4
3.7
49
16.8%
10
Her Majesty
13
8.3
27
9.3%
10
Pegasus Wind
11
10.3
11
3.8%
11
Satulagi
11
35.1
27
9.3%
6
Principle Secret
dnf
6.5
11
3.8%
12
Appealing Zophie
4
21.2
27
9.3%
2
Stormello
5
9.9
11
3.8%
3 F&M Turf
4 Sprint
Fin
Odds
P6
P6
EP4
EP4
Fin
Odds
P6
P6
EP4
EP4
2
Ouija Board
1
1.4
366
60.2%
50
17.2%
4
Henny Hughes
14
1.6
278
45.7%
129
44.3%
4
Film Maker
2
8.3
162
26.6%
213
73.2%
13
Attila's Storm
5
42.1
94
15.5%
44
15.1%
9
Satwa Queen
5
9.5
32
5.3%
12
4.1%
6
Bordonaro
4
4.1
94
15.5%
44
15.1%
7
Wait a While
4
2.3
32
5.3%
12
4.1%
8
Pomeroy
9
12.5
94
15.5%
44
15.1%
10
Germance
10
17.3
4
0.7%
1
0.3%
1
Thor's Echo
1
15.6
8
1.3%
5
1.7%
5
Honey Ryder
3
8.8
4
0.7%
1
0.3%
2
Friendly Island
2
58.6
8
1.3%
5
1.7%
3
Mauralakana
7
20.8
4
0.7%
1
0.3%
7
Nightmare Affair
3
29.1
8
1.3%
5
1.7%
6
Quiet Royal
9
42.2
4
0.7%
1
0.3%
9
Too Much Bling
6
7.4
8
1.3%
5
1.7%
10
War Front
7
15.4
8
1.3%
5
1.7%
11
Siren Lure
8
6.2
8
1.3%
5
1.7%
5 Mile
6 Distaff
PP
Horse
Fin
Odds
P6
P6
LP4
LP4
Fin
Odds
P6
P6
LP4
LP4
3
Araafa
9
3.0
155
25.5%
179
35.0%
7
Fleet Indian
dnf
2.7
276
45.4%
51
10.0%
7
Aragorn
2
4.0
155
25.5%
59
11.5%
9
Pool Land
9
11.8
60
9.9%
91
17.8%
6
Echo of Light
14
9.7
139
22.9%
59
11.5%
6
Spun Sugar
8
11.6
60
9.9%
91
17.8%
12
Gorella
7
3.6
139
22.9%
59
11.5%
1
Round Pound
1
13.9
60
9.9%
91
17.8%
4
Sleeping Indian
4
21.5
8
1.3%
12
2.3%
14
Balleto
3
8.9
60
9.9%
41
8.0%
13
Librettist
10
16.2
2
0.3%
39
7.6%
2
Pine Island
dnf
2.9
60
9.9%
41
8.0%
9
Rob Roy
5
23.5
2
0.3%
39
7.6%
3
Healthy Addiction
12
15.5
24
3.9%
91
17.8%
1
Ad Valorem
13
25.4
2
0.3%
39
7.6%
13
Happy Ticket
2
14.8
8
1.3%
20
3.9%
14
Aussie Rules
8
11.0
2
0.3%
12
2.3%
11
Bushfire
11
35.2
0
0.0%
20
3.9%
10
Miesque's Approval
1
24.3
2
0.3%
12
2.3%
2
Silent Name
6
31.8
2
0.3%
12
2.3%
7 Turf
8 Classic
Fin
Odds
P6
P6
LP4
LP4
Fin
Odds
P6
P6
LP4
LP4
6
Cacique
10
3.8
272
44.7%
151
29.5%
3
Bernardini
2
1.1
584
96.1%
456
89.2%
10
English Channel
2
3.7
152
25.0%
119
23.3%
11
Invasor
1
6.7
24
3.9%
55
10.8%
7
Hurricane Run
6
2.9
152
25.0%
119
23.3%
2
T.H. Approval
8
11.5
8
1.3%
42
8.2%
9
Red Rocks
1
10.8
8
1.3%
40
7.8%
4
Scorpion
5
5.9
8
1.3%
40
7.8%
8
Better Talk Now
2
18.6
8
1.3%
0
0.0%
It has been a most engrossing day! Only thing to make it better would have been big winnings. Hope to go over the details with you - recorded the entire event.
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