Perhaps my inability to add 12 + 3 + 3 (≠ 20) foreshadowed what would be a tough day. A day which was meant to be a coronation of champions (Bernardini, Henny Hughes, Fleet Indian, Pine Island, Gorella) was full of shocking upsets. My statement that favorites would rule the day could not have been more wrong. Like each of the last five years that we have had a team, the day was full of bombs. The Pick Six was hit twice for $1,450,707.20. Incredible given just one favorite won and four of the horses were longer than 10-1.

As for my trip to Louisville, it was a grand time. I started my weekend watching the Louisville-West Virginia game in a crowded bar full of raucous fans. I was quietly rooting for the Mountaineers because of the warm treatment I received as a guest of their Economics Department in September, and since four of our teammates are students there. On Friday I went to Keeneland to work at their research library and place our bets. It took me a good half hour to make all of our wagers, but I was glad to get it done early. With the big crowd and the long lines, it would have been impossible at Churchill. Saturday was great, and would have been even if I had lost my entire stake. We had great seats, between the eighth and the three-sixteenth pole. Most of the big moves in the dirt races happened right in front of us. The crowd was big but tolerable, and the people were unbelievably friendly despite the long lines and cramped quarters.

It was while making my bets at Keeneland that I realized I had $200 left over. I added a missing $16 combination to our Pick Six wager and made $201 worth of additional late Pick 4s at Churchill. Our total bankroll was $2018 and we had 44 team members. I do appreciate your willingness to trust your hard-earned money to my management and I am sorry I could not come through this year. With so many upsets, I was off all day and personally was deep in the hole until I bailed myself out late.

A spreadsheet that breaks down our wager is attached. In the eight races, the winners were ranked C, C, A, C, C, B, B, C by me – that is 5 Cs, my worst showing ever. Strangely enough, though, we had a real shot to cash the late Pick Four despite the fact that I was so wrong all day.

The Pick Six paid $1,450,707.20 – our best ticket had only two winners.

The Early Pick Four paid $3,442.70 – our best ticket had two winners. The winners of the first two races were completely left off the Pick Four.

The Late Pick Four paid $48,453.60 – our best ticket had three winners. We were alive 3 x 1 with a two longshots ($50.60 and $29.80) setting things up.

Let’s review.

Juvenile Fillies

In the Juvenile Fillies I had no great opinions and we were hoping to stay alive to C P West in the Juvenile or Film Maker in the Filly and Mare Turf. We had spread to seven of the fourteen horses in the field but left out favorite 1 Dreaming of Anna ($7.20) who got the jump on the field and never looked back. She had been racing on the turf and against suspect competition in Canada – I despised her and she won, so we were immediately out $290 and done with the early Pick Four. Dreaming of Anna would be the first of five straight dirt winners from the one hole. Favorite wins and we are out. Bad start.

Juvenile

This race was suddenly irrelevant since we were out of the early Pick 4. 1 Street Sense ($32.40) came flying from back of the pack along the rail to win going away. Coming into this race, the horse had one win in four starts (always in the money) and appeared to be to slow. His was the most visually impressive performance of the day and his time was quite fast (1.4 seconds faster than the fillies). Will he break the Derby jinx? Maybe. C P West (10-1) finished sixth after running right behind the moderate pace. All my Pick 3s were crushed. Two races, two hundred down.

Filly and Mare Turf

2 Ouija Board ($4.80) won her second BC race finishing just ahead of Film Maker (8-1) for the third straight year. Ouija Board was much the best and solidifies herself as one of the great turf mares of all time. Film Maker ran well but was no match for the winner. We were off and running in the Pick Six with 61% of our combinations alive. I had the exacta five times and was back in business as well (but still down).

Sprint

Key horse Henny Hughes (3-2) got off to bad start and went backwards from there, fading in the stretch to finish last. 1 Thor’s Echo ($33.20) rated just off the pace on the inside and sprinted clear to a decisive win late. Thor’s Echo had been competitive against Cal state-breds and did run well in Dubai but this was a big step up. I am at a loss to explain Henny Hughes’ disappointing run, but it happens to the best of them. Longshot Attila’s Storm (42-1) ran well while dueling for the lead before fading to fifth. All my Pick 3s dead. Once again I am in a big hole. We are alive in the Pick Six 4 x 1 x 1 x 1 – we are spread in the next race but have singled our way home.

Mile

There is no way I can make a case for 10 Miesque’s Approval ($50.60) who on paper is Grade III horse and a former claimer. You could’ve bought this one a year ago for $50k at Aqueduct (a race where he finished sixth). Araafa and Gorella hardly make their presence noticed. We are out of the Pick Six and alive 4 x 3 x 1 in the Pick Four. The $201 of additional Pick Fours (focusing on Araafa and the longshot Europeans) are done. My hole becomes deeper.

Distaff

Neither Fleet Indian nor Pine Island finish the race (the latter is destroyed) and 1 Round Pound ($29.80) bursts through on the rail to score a 4 length win. Asi Siempre (whom I hated) may have run the best race, as she was full of run but stuck behind a wall of horses. Julian Leparoux, instead of waiting for an opening, moves his horses back and forth behind the wall and eventually pushes Balletto out of the way and runs into second in the last 100 yards. She is taken down and placed fourth. Round Pound’s win actually puts us in decent shape for the late Pick Four. We have managed to get two bombs home and are alive to the three favorites in the Turf and Bernardini in the Classic. At the time I put the probability of us winning at right under 50% and guessed that the payout would be at least $10,000 (nice 5-1 return for everyone).

Turf

The upsets continue as 9 Red Rocks ($23.60) flies past English Channel in deep stretch and then is nearly caught by Better Talk Now. Red Rocks had not won a graded stakes race but had run competitively over a route of ground and was getting better. Cacique faded badly and Hurricane Run was only a mild threat at the top of the stretch before flattening out. Our team is finished by this third consecutive longshot. I am down quite a bit but still have a chance to cash a Pick 3 that is alive twice to Bernardini and once to Invasor.

Classic

This was the one to watch. Bernardini vs Invasor vs Lava Man vs George Washington vs David Junior and even a Derby winner (Giacomo) is in the mix. The best field in years assembled for the finale and the race lived up to expectations. Bernardini stalked the hot pace set by Brother Derek and a rank Lawyer Ron. He seemed at one point to be struggling but suddenly kicked it into high gear and exploded to the lead right in front of us to a huge roar of the crowd. For a moment it looked like Bernardini would bury the field but 11 Invasor ($15.40) ran right up to him and Bernardini didn’t have enough gas in the tank to hold off Uruguay’s Triple Crown winner. Invasor wrapped up Horse of the Year with his fourth Grade I win. I got in line to collect my winnings – I had the exacta five times and the Pick Three – and was told I needed to show ID and give my Social Security number. Hot damn – I am ending the day with a signer. The Pick 3 paid $1360 and the exacta another $198 (for five). Garbage to Garbage to Bernardini/Invasor gets it done (unfortunately our team didn’t have Garbage to Garbage to Garbage to Bernardini/Invasor in the Pick Four for $48k).

Churchill Downs was great and many thanks go to my hosts Randy Parker and his brother and sister in-law Rick and Ginger Parker and their son Rick.

Anyone for Monmouth in 2007?