On Friday I was able to do my first serious studying for the BC. I went through the races comprising the Late Pick 4 (Mile, Distaff, Turf, and Classic), watched a handful of race replays, and started grading out horses (A for must use, B heavy lean, C use lightly, X throw out). I guess my work was fairly intense for I awoke multiple times that night not because of a baby crying but instead in a cold sweat over the BC. In my dreams was that it was Championship Saturday and I had not done enough preparation. In half the races I didn’t recognize any of the horses by name. I hadn’t made out any of my Pick 4 and Pick 6 tickets despite the fact that it was near post-time. The kids also needed attention so I couldn’t focus on the races in what little time I had left.

A few thoughts:
Monmouth historically has a speed favoring main track. It remains to be seen what the effect of running races in late October instead of the summer will be, or if the ground crew tweaks the track to try to make it play more evenly. I’ll be watching this week’s racing very closely to see what has been done. If the track plays like it did in the summer than Any Given Saturday will be a strong play in the Classic.

Two year olds run so infrequently anymore making the two Juvenile races very hard to handicap. Among the pre-entries, the fillies average 3.3 starts and the colts 3.8 starts. Kodiak Cowboy, Salute the Sarge, and Wicked Style are the only multiple stakes winners among the boys and the first two are suspect around two turns (Xs). Proud Spell and Smarty Deb are the only multiple stakes winning fillies, but Smarty Deb has raced entirely at Emerald Downs and Proud Spell won a minor stake at Delaware Park before winning the Matron. Many of the entrants ran on synthetic or turf – who knows how to evaluate these races. I figure I’ll look for a few horses to key on at a price and play the early Pick 4 lighter than the late Pick 4.

In the Classic, Any Given Saturday, Curlin, and Street Sense will be the key horses with some money on Lawyer Ron and Hard Spun. Any Given Saturday will be the best price –
his running style fits Monmouth and he has a win over the course.

Arc winner Dylan Thomas should dominate the BC Turf. I’d like to try and beat him but I can’t figure out who could get it done.

Excellent Art is the best horse in the BC Mile but he is a deep closer and it remains to be seen if he can over come Monmouth’s short stretch drive. Jeremy is not as good and will be coming from even further back. Kip Deville is probably the strongest domestic contender followed by After Market and Trippi Storm (who may have found his optimal distance and will be a price).

In the Sprint, do you single Midnight Lute or toss him? A repeat of his Forego figure would crush this field, but can he be as dominate going one furlong shorter behind a much swifter pace? Is his 124 Beyer fig legit? I’m not so sure – I can’t believe that second place finisher Benny the Bull jumped up to a 119. Can Attila’s Storm wire the field? I have bet him at 40-1 in the last two renewals of the Sprint and each time he has run respectably.