The studying is over and we are just a sunrise away from the Breeders' Cup. In fact the BC officially began today with three new races. If today is any indication, tomorrow could be a crazy day. The winners of the three races paid $18, $27.20, and $9.40 respectively. In the opener the two big favorites dueled each other into the ground, setting up a $678 payoff for a 10-cent superfecta. Wisely, we avoided these races or I would've dug us into a hole (I already ran through too much of my personal bankroll). The track was a sloppy mess and will be so tomorrow with intermittent showers. While I had a great trip to Churchill Downs last year, I'm glad I'll be at home enjoying this year's races on my HD.

Here is the lineup (Central Time):
ESPN
11:30 Juvenile Fillies (early Pick 4 begins)
12:10 Juvenile
12:55 Filly & Mare Turf (Pick 6 begins)
1:35 Sprint
2:20 Mile (late Pick 4 begins)
3:05 Distaff
3:50 Turf
4:35 Classic

We will play the early Pick 4 lightly ($296) and then hammer the late Pick 4 ($632). Our Pick Six play of $1,072 gives us 536 $2 combinations. Thus our bankroll is $2000 and each share is worth 1%. Attached is a spreadsheet including a grading out of each race, the three wagers, the distribution of horses in the wagers, and the tickets.

Early Pick Four
These four races are very tricky, especially the two juvenile races. We will tread lightly and preserve the bankroll for an all out assault on the late Pick 4.

Juvenile Fillies
Half the field will be gasping for air as they round the home turn with pedigrees that scream "sprinter." This includes morning line favorite Indian Blessing, who on paper is at least six lengths better than this group -- around one turn. But that second turn will be the killer. So we are going to start off with two that figure to get the trip - 8 Izarra is a closer who has been running on the rubber surfaces in California but whose pedigree is dirt oriented (the synthetics play like grass); 10 Proud Spell is bred to relish two turns, comes in well rested, and is as fast as anyone but Indian Blessing. Outside of these two, we spread.

Juvenile
2 War Pass is a few lengths faster than these and should get an optimal trip:  a rail run on the lead while kicking mud in everyone else's face. Most of our tickets go through War Pass.

F&M Turf
This race is critical as it is the opener of the Pick 6 and the third leg of the Pick 4. The field assembled is competitive, if lacking the star power of recent years (I miss Film Maker and Ouija Board). Any one of nine horses have a real shot in this race, so here we take a stab with longshots. It is do or die for the Pick 6 with 1 All My Loving and 7 Argentina. All My Loving is stoutly bred, has tactical speed, is improving and should benefit from the soft going. It has been a long time since Argentina has won a race but she has been lightly campaigned this year and has run deceptively well while coming from further off the pace this year.

Sprint
2 Midnight Lute might be the fastest horse we've seen in the past few years, or his last race might have been a complete fluke. He is a favorite that is hard to like but hard to throw out. His last race was so visually impressive that I vowed to single him in the Sprint that day. I looked for someone else to beat him but I can't find anyone. Outside of Midnight Lute, this is a really sorry field. I believe 1 Smokey Stover is a complete fraud (a la Lost in the Fog) but I am afraid to completely toss him. Everyone else looks slow. That being said if you cross out Midnight Lute's last race, he is morning line 20-1. Tricky, tricky, tricky.

Mile
I love the late Pick 4 and we have two solid horses to start our play. 13 Excellent Art is a deep closer who has been competitive in his four Group 1 starts in Europe this year. If he gets clear running, it is all over. If not, then 8 Kip Deville should get up. He ran a solid second in the Woodbine Mile last time, putting away the other front runners before being caught near the finish. Earlier in the year he won two major mile stakes races before throwing two clunkers in five days on two difference surfaces. He got some time off and should be back to his early spring form. 9 Nobiz Like Shobiz might be the race favorite off his three straight wins over 3yo turfers and his reputation from the Derby trail (he won the Wood Memorial and the Holy Bull). We'll live dangerously and toss him. He is too slow and better suited to the dirt.

Distaff
Everybody loves the 3yos, but we are going with two veterans, 4 Ginger Punch and 11 Unbridled Belle. It remains to be seen if Ginger Punch can get the distance but she was dynamite around two turns in the Go For Wand at Saratoga. I'm hopeful that her last race (faded in the stretch at even money) will do nothing but jack up her price. 11 Unbridled Belle was a Todd Pletcher second stringer before jumping out of her skin the Delaware Handicap. She is a slow grinder and can run all day.

Turf
7 Dylan Thomas won the Prix Ganay, King George VI & Queen Elizabeth, and the Arc. In other starts this year he was a close second to Authorized, Notnowcato, and Manduro. He is the best turf horse in the world and will be the biggest favorite on BC day. It remains to be seen whether he is over the top. He has had a long, hard campaign and the trip overseas just three weeks after the Arc might do him in. We spread with 2 Red Rocks, 3 Better Talk Now, and 6 English Channel. Red Rocks has run behind Dylan Thomas twice this year but is lightly raced and returns to the country where he got his biggest win. 8yo Better Talk Now is as good as he has ever been despite 40 career starts. This year he comes into the race off a huge layoff and Graham Motion is a wizard. 6 English Channel got screwed out the Turf Male Eclipse award last year and is the best and most consistent horse in competition here over the last few years.

Classic
3 Any Given Saturday. Take it to the bank. He is as fast as Curlin and Street Sense but will be a price and is built perfectly for the Monmouth surface (as he proved in dominating Curlin and Hard Spun in the Haskell). Wide trips did him in in the Tampa Bay Derby, Wood Memorial, and Kentucky Derby. Since then he has been dominant.

Should be a fun day! I feel good and I think we'll bring home cash this year.

Pick Six ($2 wager)
1,7/1,2,4,5,6,7,8,10,11/8,13/4,11/2,3,6,7/3
1,7/2/8,13/5,7,8,10,12/2,3,6,7/3
2,3,4,5,8,11,12/2,8,13/4,11/2,3,6,7/3
6,9,10/2/13/4,11/2,3,6,7/3
1,7/2/13/4,11/4,5/3
1,7/2/13/1,3,6/2,3,6,7/3

Early Pick Four ($1 wager)
8,10/2/1,7/ALL
8,10/2/ALL/2
8,10/ALL/1,7/2
ALL/2/1,7/2
8,10/2/2,3,4,5,8,11,12/1,2,4,5,6,7,8,10,11
8,10/2/1,7/1,4,5,6,7,8,10,11
12,14/2/1,7/2

Late Pick Four ($1 wager)
8,13/1,3,4,5,6,7,8,10,11,12/2,3,6,7/3,4
8,13/4,5,7,8,10,11,12/1,4,5,7/3,4
8,13/4,11/2,3,6,7/1,2,3,4,8
1,3,5,6,7,8,11,12,13,14/4,5,7,8,10,11,12/7/3
1,3,5,6,7,8,11,12,13,14/4,11/2,3,6/3
3,5,6,8,13/4,11/7/1,2,3,4
13/1,3,4,6,11/2,3,6,7/3
13/4,5,7,8,10,11,12/1,4,5,7/3
13/5,7,8,10,12/2,3,6/3,4
13/4,5,7,8,10,11,12/7/1,2,3,4
4,10/4,11/7/3