Breeding for speed results in less durable horses by Andrew Beyer

Mr. Beyer is right on every point save one.

In the last paragraph of the article he states, "The Big Brown scenario is almost too easy to predict. He'll run brilliantly and be retired in the fall as his owners sell him for stud duty - probably to a sheikh. His whole career will have lasted no more than nine races."
 
There ain't no way that Big Brown races five more times - I'll give you 10-1 on that. Most likely he'll race twice more.