What to do about the Belmont?
I figure it comes down to this – I can pile up on Big Brown, betting a lot in hopes of winning a little, or try to beat him. Trying to beat him will be a tall task. There are a slew of reasons that he should lose the Belmont, not withstanding all the great horses who have lost this race at short odds while gunning for the Triple Crown. Big Brown has other major question marks. His feet are a real issue despite the media’s positive spin on the situation (miracle work of Ian McKinlay) and his pedigree reveals distance limitations. That being said, who is going to beat him? Casino Drive, if he runs (he may have a stone bruise and did not train today) is going to be massively overbet. He has run only twice in his life and while both wins were impressive, the Belmont is a grueling race that requires both stamina and seasoning. There is no doubt Casino Drive has the pedigree, but this is exactly what will make him unappealing. He will be heavily backed because he is 1/2 to ’06 Belmont winner Jazil and 3/4 to ’07 Belmont winner Rags to Riches. Like those two he can probably run all day. He is from the first crop of ’03 Horse of the Year Mineshaft (by A.P. Indy) who excelled in US dirt routes after flopping overseas. Usually I am a sucker for a pedigree play like this but I’m willing to bet that Casino Drive will finish up the track. So who does that leave? Tale of Ekati has had issues training up to the Belmont and doesn't seem to want to go 1½ miles but he is a dual qualifier and that has been an explosive angle in the Belmont. Anak Nakal is bred to run all day and has a nice 2yo foundation (weighted 113 in the EFH, won the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club), but he finished only fifth closing into monstrous fractions in the Wood Memorial (at 45-1). If that is all he can manage in ideal conditions, how can he win here? Denis Cork passed tired horses to clunk up and finish third in the Derby. His pedigree is solid (Harlan’s Holiday out of an Unbridled mare). Is he more like Jazil, who came from last to 4th in the ’06 Derby or Imawildandcrazyguy who came from last to 4th in the ’07 Derby? Icabad Crane made a nice late move in the Preakness but he had to fight tooth and nail to beat no one in the Frederico Tesio. Ready’s Echo has a questionable pedigree and an ill-suited racing style (a deep closer). Macho Again has a nice 2yo foundation and is improving but it seems unlikely he can jump up enough to win. Da’ Tara is not going 12f. Guadalcanal is a slow maiden.   

Uh, ok, so what do I do?
Perhaps I'll just watch and hope to toast Big Brown in victory. With Casino Drive likely to scratch all value will be taken out of the exotics with Big Brown on top (unless maybe Guadalcanal can clunk up to third). There is no Birdstone in this field. Hell, there is no Eddington or Rock Hard Ten or even Purge in this field either. I predict that not a single horse opposing Big Brown will ever win a race of significance (Birdstone won the Travers, Eddington won the Pimlico Special and the Gulfstream Park Handicap, Rock Hard Ten won the Malibu, the Strub, the Big 'Cap, and the Goodwood, Purge won the Cigar Mile).

So Big Brown will win the Triple Crown in a gallop. Is he a great horse? Maybe. Will we ever find out? not likely. Though the folks at Suffolk Down have the right idea.