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Thoughts on Horse Racing from an Economist/Gambler/Fan

Big Brown

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This entry was posted on 10/13/2008 9:48 PM and is filed under General.

So you probably know by now that Big Brown injured his foot in a workout over the turf at Aqueduct. He finishes his career with seven wins in eight starts including four Grade I triumphs (Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Haskell, Florida Derby). I am disappointed not because I liked Big Brown, I've come to detest his owners (IEAH stables) and trainer (Rick Dutrow) over the past few months and as a result was rooting very hard against him in his last two starts at Monmouth. Perhaps it is not fair to fault the horse for his arrogant and obnoxious connections, but I can't help myself.

Without Big Brown the Breeders' Cup has much less interest to me. I was planning to bet just a small amount on the card in protest of the synthetic surface because champions should be determined on dirt and (perhaps more honestly) I have no clue how to handicap these new tracks.

Will Curlin run? If he does he is a bet against. For proponents of synthetic surfaces there are three outcomes and only one of them is positive. If Curlin skips the race than it is a slap against them and the Breeders' Cup. If Curlin runs and loses than the track will be questioned and dirt horse stars of '09 will be more likely to skip the Breeders' Cup repeat visit to Santa Anita .

Back to Big Brown - where does he fit in the pantheon of race horses? Will he be Horse of the Year? No. Will he be 3yo champion? Yes. He did win four Grade I races including two classics. Is he a Hall of Famer? I don't think so. His record is inconclusive. Eight races and four Grade I wins are too few. For perspective think about where he ranks among great horses of this decade? He is certainly outside of the top ten. Tiznow, Azeri, Point Given, Street Sense, Invasor, Curlin, Mineshaft, Saint Liam, Lava Man, Afleet Alex, and Ghostzapper have accomplished more. Is Big Brown worth the $50 million he was syndicated for? I don't think so. He's by a mediocre sire of sprinter/milers and has a so-so female family. Neither Big Brown nor Boundary were very sound so breed at your own risk. Only a fool would drop six figures to get his mare serviced by Big Brown. As the bloodstock market tanks further, the syndication deal looks more foolish.

 
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