Truxton Losing
Truxton Stables' In the Woods faces nine tomorrow in a 7 furlong claiming race at Philly Park. Truxton is a pitiful 0 for 28 with $50,840 in earnings. The 28 runners were not all longshots. 18 of 28 runners went to the post at 8/1 or lower. If you believe the betting odds are a good approximation of a horse's true probability of winning a race then we have been dramatically under performing. The odds on Truxton's 28 runners project 3.93 wins. Of five runners with odds of less than 2/1, only one hit the board. Ten more runners had odds between 3/1 and 6/1 - three seconds, two thirds, and zero wins. The probability that we would be winless is 1.1%. Do we have a lousy trainer? If so, shouldn't that be incorporated in the odds?
In the Woods is morning line 6/1. Bet at your own risk. Based on Truxton's record there is a better chance he will breakdown than win.
Should we change the stable name to Zippy Chippy?
In the Woods is morning line 6/1. Bet at your own risk. Based on Truxton's record there is a better chance he will breakdown than win.
Should we change the stable name to Zippy Chippy?
Don't think it's a good sign when the odds of breaking down are better than the odds of winning.
Good luck! And, it must be said...DON'T break a leg.
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In the Woods finished third at odds of 3.6 to 1.
$3080 more than covers his expenses for the month but to make money you need to win.
Revised Numbers:
Expected wins - 4.11
Probability of 0 for 29 - 0.91%
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Losing no more!
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