EQUINOMETRICS.COM
Thoughts on Horse Racing from an Economist/Horseplayer/Fan

Marshall Gramm    marshall@equinometrics.com
EQUINOMETRICS.COM

Preakness Picks

PREAKNESS
12 Dublin
7 Lookin at Lucky
6 Jackson Bend

I'll be rooting for Super Saver but betting against him.



Preakness Indie Rock



Pimlico

Derby Day

Derby Selections
First 7 American Lion
Second 1 Lookin at Lucky
Third 16 Awesome Act
Fourth 15 Discretely Mine

Derby Day Bets
8th race - $193.50
$0.50 Pick Four 3/1,7,12/ALL/7 ($13.50)
$0.50 Pick Four 3,6,10/1,7.12/3,5,6,7,8,9/7 ($27)
$0.50 Pick Four 3,6,10/12/ALL/7 ($13.50)
$0.50 Pick Four ALL/12/3/7 ($5)
$0.50 Pick Four 3/ALL/3/7 ($6.50)
$0.50 Pick Four 6/12/3.5.6.7.8.9/1,4,11,12,14,15,20 ($21)
$0.50 Pick Four 6/1,7/3/1,4,11,12,14,15,20 ($7)
$40 Win/Place 6 Pretty Prolific ($80)
$8 Exacta Box 3 Informed Decision, 6 Pretty Prolfic ($16)
$2 Exacta Box 3 Informed Decision, 10 Mona de Momma ($4)

11th race - $494
$200 Win/Place 7 American Lion
$10 Exacta 7/1,4,11,16 ($40)
$6 Exacta 1,4,11,16/7 ($24)
$4 Exacta 7/10,12,14,15,20 ($20)
$2 Exacta 10,12,14,15,20/7 ($10)

Total - $687.50

Good Luck!

Oaks Day

Last day of class tomorrow, Senior Economics major party tomorrow night (40+ guests), Derby party Saturday (100 adults, 50 kids). Crazy busy but on the cusp of summer break.

My Oaks day wagers ($581)
Race 1 - $14
$10 Double 8 Diamond Song/7 Azurite
$4 Double 8 Diamond Song/9 Shirley She Can

Race 2 - $50
$30 Win 7 Azurite
$10 Exacta Box 7 Azurite, 9 Shirley She Can

Race 4 - $49
$0.50 Pick Four 4,10/ALL/4/7 ($12)
$0.50 Pick Four 4,10,11/3,4,6,8,11/4/2,7 ($15)
$2 Exacta Box 4 Elusive Jozi, 10 Funny Feeling, 11 Fuzy Britches ($12)
$5 Exacta 11 Fuzzy Britches/4 Elusive Jozi, 10 Funny Feeling ($10)

Race 6 - $50
$50 Exacta 4 Rachel Alexandra/5 Unrivaled Belle

Race 7 - $30
$30 Exacta 7 Nina Fever/2 Lou Brissie

Race 8 - $41
$0.50 Pick Four 3,6,7/6,8/4,5/5 ($6)
$0.50 Pick Four 3,6,7/6,8/4/1,5,13 ($9)
$0.50 Pick Four ALL/6,8/4/5 ($11)
$0.50 Pick Four 3,6,7/8/ALL/5 ($15) 

Race 9 - $75
$50 Win 8 Flying Private
$20 Double 8 Flying Private/4 Lost Aptitude
$5 Double 8 Flying Private/5 Strike the Tiger

Race 10 - $32
$20 Win 4 Lost Aptitude
$5 Exacta Box 4 Lost Aptitude, 5 Strike the Tiger ($10)
$2 Pick Three 4/5/6

Race 11 - $230
$200 Win 5 Blind Luck
$10 Exacta 5/1,6,13 ($30)

Race 12 - $10
$10 Win 6 Hottie Dancer

New additions to Truxton Stables

Big Striker: 3yo colt Valid Expectations - Jenny Lee by Saint Ballado




Coach Hawley: 3yo gelding Tale of the Cat - One More Walk by Lost Code

Aunt Dot Dot is a mommy!

A big baby colt by Giacomo born in the last hour. Names?

R.I.P. Dick Francis


A sad day. Dick Francis wrote 42 horse racing related mysteries and was a champion jump jockey. I've read over half his books and always read one when I'm on the road. My favorites - For Kicks (1965), Bonecrack (1971), Straight (1989), and To the Hilt (1996).

Pregnant Dot Dot

Aunt Dot Dot at Timber Ridge Farm. She is in foal to Giacomo and due in late March.

WOW!

HOT SPRINGS, Ark. (AP)—Oaklawn Park is throwing $5 million at star females Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta to meet for the first time at the Apple Blossom in April.

The racetrack in Hot Springs announced Thursday that the owners of both champion horses are receptive to the idea. No firm commitments have been made.

“This is an event of a lifetime,” said Pat Pope, Oaklawn’s racing secretary. “We’re going to do everything to bring them to the state of Arkansas.”

Rachel Alexandra won 2009 Horse of the Year honors over Zenyatta. The 4-year-old Rachel and 6-year-old Zenyatta have never met on the track to settle who is the best.

Oaklawn said the $5 million purse will be offered only if both horses enter. If not, the purse will revert to $500,000 as initially planned.

No matter who is in the field, the Apple Blossom distance has been increased from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles.

Rachel Alexandra is training at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans. Her first race this year is undetermined. She went 8-0 last year, including the Preakness and two other wins against male horses.

Zenyatta had been off to retirement after capping a 14-0 career with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. But now she’s back for another year and might run in the Santa Margarita Handicap at Santa Anita on March 13.

Zenyatta, who won the 2008 Apple Blossom, is owned by Jerry and Ann Moss, and trained by John Shirreffs. Rachel, who won twice at Oaklawn last year, is owned by Jess Jackson and Harold McCormick and trained by the nation’s top trainer Steve Asmussen.

“My family and I would love to see her run at Oaklawn Park. If she is in top form and it fits in our schedule, we will be there,” Jackson said. “As you have heard me say many times before, a number of factors must be considered when deciding where to race a horse—the number one factor being the condition of the horse. Rachel will tell us when she is ready to start her 2010 campaign and we humans must agree she is in top form.”

Rachel Alexandra - Horse of the Year

The voters got it right
Rachel Alexandra 130 to Zenyatta 99

The best news of the new year, of course, is that Zenyatta is running in '10. So the two great race mares will probably face off on a conventional dirt surface (should they remain sound). Wherever they run I will be there. It just might be the most anticipated race in the history of the sport in America.

Play of the Day

7/28 Charles Town Race 6
Wild Tepu (3-1)

7/27 Prairie Meadows Race 4
Action Seeker
2nd

Record: 1-4 25%
ROI: -43%

Last Five Books Read

The Last Stand: Custer, Sitting Bull, and the Battle of the Little Bighorn by Nathaniel Philbrick (2010), Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking by Malcolm Gladwell (2005), Trial Run by Dick Francis (1978), Beautiful Swimmers: Watermen, Crabs and the Chesapeake Bay by William W. Warner (1977), The Making of Modern Economics: The Lives and Ideas of the Great Thinkers by Mark Skousen (2001)
 my horse-racing shelf

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